Which demand forecast should the team use?
Trace the AI draft to the approved demand record before you report the margin.
The question
You prepare a planning brief for a US utility for 18:00–19:00. The margin is available supply minus net demand. The demand owner maintains the approved record.
| MW | |
|---|---|
| Available supply | 118 |
| Net demand forecast | 106 |
| Minimum planning margin | 10 |
All three figures apply to the same hour. Use the margin in the planning brief.
Use 98 MW as net demand. The source breakdown is missing.
“Which figure would you use in the brief? How would you check the other figure?”
Not saved by this site. Your browser may restore text when you navigate back.
A strong answer, step by step
Open each step in turn. This is one strong answer, not the only one.
Step 1: Check the approved forecast
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Report 12 MW using the approved forecast.
The strong move. Both estimates concern the same hour. Only one has approval from the demand owner.
Report 20 MW because the draft is ready to send.
Tempting, but it misses something. The AI draft supplies 98 MW without the underlying inputs. The approved net demand is 106 MW.
See how a strong candidate says it
“I’d use 106 MW from the approved record. At 118 MW of supply, the margin is 12 MW, 2 MW above the planning floor. The AI draft would give 20 MW and needs a source check.”
Why it works: Both estimates concern the same hour. Only one has approval from the demand owner.
Step 2: Trace the eight megawatts
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Ask the demand owner for the version and adjustment breakdown.
The strong move. A net demand forecast may already include the reduction the draft applied.
Average the two forecasts and report 102 MW.
Tempting, but it misses something. Averaging cannot tell whether the same load adjustment appears twice.
See how a strong candidate says it
“I’d compare the record versions and ask the demand owner which load adjustments each includes. The difference is 8 MW. I’d trace it before I use any revised number.”
Why it works: A net demand forecast may already include the reduction the draft applied.
Step 3: Use the confirmed update
The demand owner confirms the approved 106 MW already includes an 8 MW flexible-load credit. The AI draft deducted it again. The owner now approves 5 MW more demand for heat in that hour. Supply stays at 118 MW.
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Use 111 MW and flag the 3 MW gap to the planning lead.
The strong move. Add the 5 MW heat revision to the approved 106 MW baseline. That baseline already includes the flexibility credit.
Add the heat revision to 98 MW and use the result.
Tempting, but it misses something. The 98 MW draft deducted the 8 MW credit again. Its revised margin would still overstate available capacity.
See how a strong candidate says it
“The draft took the same reduction twice. The new approved figure is 111 MW. At 118 MW supply, the margin is 7 MW, which is 3 MW below the planning floor.”
Why it works: Add the 5 MW heat revision to the approved 106 MW baseline. That baseline already includes the flexibility credit.
Step 4: Give a checked alert
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Report the verified gap and ask the planning lead to review the options.
The strong move. A checked alert gives the owner a time, an approved record and the size of the gap.
Leave the brief unchanged until the AI draft is regenerated.
Tempting, but it misses something. The approved record already shows the gap. The lead can review it now.
See how a strong candidate says it
“I’d send the planning lead the 18:00–19:00 interval, the approved 111 MW forecast, 7 MW of margin and the 3 MW gap. I’d correct the brief and ask the lead to confirm the next review.”
Why it works: A checked alert gives the owner a time, an approved record and the size of the gap.
The answer, in short
- Decision
- Use the approved 111 MW forecast and report the 3 MW gap.
- Because
- The AI draft deducted the flexibility credit twice. The approved heat revision cuts the margin to 7 MW.
- What would change it
- A new approved forecast or supply record would change the margin for the hour.
Common traps
- Subtracting a credit already in net demand.
- Waiting for a new AI draft when the approved record changed.
Check your answer
- I identified the approved record.
- I traced the 8 MW difference.
- I recalculated the revised margin.
- I gave the planning lead the interval and gap.
Last reviewed Nov 11, 2026